weekly recap - 2-1-2025

The team discussed recent market fluctuations, attributing the downturn to tariffs and the impact of an AI model from a Chinese company. They analyzed various stocks, assessing their potential for growth or decline while considering trading strategies, sector performance, and market momentum. The meeting concluded with the introduction of a new dashboard for tracking market movements and sector performance, followed by closing remarks.

Next Steps

Research the potential impact of tariffs on SMCI stock and determine whether to hold or sell the position.
Share the Yahoo Finance video on January market performance and the 2024 outlook in the GroupMe chat.
Monitor retail stocks for potential impacts from upcoming earnings reports and tariff announcements.
Investigate ELF Beauty’s sourcing and production locations to assess potential tariff effects.
Consider trading strategies that capitalize on stocks trading within defined ranges given current market conditions.
Research and share more information about CLSK's financials and recent developments.
Monitor developments regarding potential U.S. policy changes related to Bitcoin and their impact on crypto-related stocks.
Research and evaluate the possibility of buying a put option on Palantir before its earnings report on Monday as a hedge.
Research and share the "whisper number" for Palantir’s upcoming earnings with the group.
Look into entering a position in VRT, targeting an entry price between $1.10 and $1.14.
Consider opening a position in Target if it pulls back to around $127.
Review and adjust stop-loss orders to ensure they cover additional shares added to existing positions.
Monitor GEV and VST positions for potential profit-taking opportunities.
Research and consider international stocks, as they are outperforming the Dow.
Evaluate investment opportunities in strong sectors such as communications and financials.
Research potential positions in RIOT and CLSK cryptocurrency-related stocks, with consideration for purchasing 2–4 contracts each.
Continue implementing a covered call strategy on the trading portfolio to generate income.
Move half of retirement funds into Jumbo CDs for capital preservation.
Create and share a tutorial video on how to use the new stock analysis dashboard.
Monitor PLTR stock for movement related to its upcoming earnings report.
Stay updated on AI and technology sector developments, particularly regarding tariffs.
Review and adjust trading strategies for February, historically a challenging month for markets.
Explore leveraging inverse ETFs in the February trading strategy.
Research potential market impacts of political developments, such as vaccine policy changes.
Adjust the main retirement portfolio to reduce volatility.
Focus on identifying strong trading opportunities while avoiding unnecessary risks.
Research ELF and ULTA stocks as potential investments.
Analyze potential market impacts if Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s stance on vaccines gains attention in the presidential race.

Summary

Market Fluctuations and Retirement Planning

The team discussed recent market fluctuations, attributing Friday’s downturn to the imposition of tariffs. One member expressed surprise at the move and shared plans to transfer half of their retirement savings into a high-yield CD for safety, aiming for a 4% return. The team agreed that this was a strategic move given the current market conditions.

AI Model Impact on the Tech Sector

A discussion centered on the influence of a Chinese AI model, Deep Seek, which claims to rival ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost. Concerns over this development led to a significant pullback in the tech sector, particularly affecting chipmakers, energy producers, data centers, and software companies. The team debated whether this was a temporary market reaction or a longer-term trend. Some members argued that AI compute demand would remain high and that chipmakers like Nvidia would not suffer significantly.

Market Trends and Trading Strategies

The team examined recent market trends, noting that while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones declined in January, the S&P 500 showed gains. A sector rotation from tech to healthcare and consumer staples was observed. Members emphasized the importance of adapting trading strategies to current market conditions, with a focus on strong-performing sectors to mitigate risk.

Trading Strategies and Market Outlook

The discussion included stock picks such as HRL, CLSK, AEHR, and INTU, with particular interest in Decker despite its recent underperformance. The team also reviewed an article predicting a potential 12% market increase over the year. Tariffs and their impact on investments, particularly SMCI, were debated, with concerns raised about financial risks and upcoming earnings reports.

Stocks, Trading Strategies, and Bitcoin

The team analyzed various stocks and potential trades. One member considered buying a put option to hedge against a potential decline, while others shared successful range-trading strategies. A discussion on Bitcoin-focused investments highlighted the potential impact of future Treasury policies, with some members considering long-term options linked to cryptocurrency-related stocks.

Cryptocurrency, Retail Stocks, and Investments

The group discussed cryptocurrency investments and retail stocks, including recent trades in GEV and VST. A technical analysis of KAVA and ELF revealed promising setups. The discussion also covered Five Below (FIVE), comparing it to other retail stocks and evaluating its price-to-earnings ratio. Concerns were raised about weak buying pressure despite its current support level.

Stocks, Earnings, and Momentum Discussion

The team reviewed earnings expectations and market momentum. Stocks such as Palantir, which had seen strong growth but faced potential earnings disappointments, were analyzed. The potential impact of tariffs on Apple and other companies was considered. The importance of understanding stock momentum and "whisper numbers" for earnings reports was emphasized as a tool for making informed trading decisions.

Stocks, Volatility, and Growth Potential

Several stocks were examined for volatility and growth potential. Tesla's price swings were highlighted, while Target’s steady climb since January 23 was noted as a potential investment. The team also discussed longer-term buy-and-hold strategies for stocks like Sprouts Farmers Market and Palantir, as well as the strength of international stocks in communications and financial sectors. Chipotle and Uber were also mentioned as growth candidates.

Cryptocurrency Stock Investment Strategies

The team evaluated cryptocurrency-related stocks, particularly CLSK and RIOT, comparing options contracts, strike prices, and potential profits. A member disclosed a substantial investment in CLSK options, anticipating strong buying activity in February. RIOT was also considered, with analysis suggesting it might have a higher upside potential. Some members opted to diversify between both stocks to manage risk.

New Dashboard and Investment Strategies

A new stock analysis dashboard was introduced, providing daily updates on market movements and sector performance. The team discussed how this tool could help identify high-potential stocks. Various trading strategies were reviewed, including leveraging inverse ETFs, covered calls for income generation, and capital preservation through safer investments. One member suggested Portillo’s as a potential opportunity. The meeting concluded with closing remarks and a look ahead to future discussions.

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weekly recap - 2-1-2025