Technical Analysis Weekly Recap - March 22, 2025

Mike Pair Money and Biddles Investment Group - Weekly Technical Analysis Webinar - March 22, 2025

Quick Recap

The meeting featured a comprehensive analysis of various market indices, sectors, and individual stocks. Discussions included current market trends, potential trading opportunities, and investment strategies. Participants examined companies across aerospace, defense, technology, and other sectors, sharing insights on stock patterns, support levels, and potential entry points. Broader topics such as Federal Reserve policy, upcoming IPOs, and personal portfolio management were also covered. The session concluded with several members sharing recent trades and updating their watchlists.

Next Steps

• All Members: Monitor Boeing for a potential breakout above the $189 level following a recent government contract award.

• All Members: Watch The Trade Desk for a potential entry around the $40 range, pending developments in the ongoing lawsuit.

• Individual Task: Monitor Nike for a potential entry at the $60 price point and evaluate its turnaround strategy under new leadership.

• Industry Watch: Continue monitoring the auto industry post-April 12 for potential tariff impacts.

• Dividend Watch: Track AGNC for upcoming dividend payouts in March and June.

• Educational Resource: Prepare and share a presentation on inverse ETFs with the group.

• Admin Task: Add new members to the group chat using previously submitted contact details.

Summary

Market Indices and Sector Analysis

The group reviewed the current state of major market indices. Most are in a downtrend, with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day average, indicating continued selling pressure. Nonetheless, there were signs of short-term strength, including bounces in the Russell and S&P 500 and potential breakouts above resistance. The VIX was analyzed for its implications on future market direction. Specific sectors such as technology, materials, and industrials were reviewed, with industrials showing momentum while tech and materials faced challenges.

Sector Performance Overview

Key sectors were highlighted, including industrials, aerospace and defense, and consumer staples. Consumer staples were noted for completing a cup pattern, signaling potential upside. Other sectors of interest included technology, financial services, consumer cyclical, healthcare, and communication services. Real estate and healthcare were identified as potential growth areas, while financials and energy sectors remained in a trading range.

Energy Sector and "Mag 8" Stock Analysis

The energy sector was discussed in detail, with a possible breakout above $93. The utilities sector was noted to be range-bound since January. Analysts also reviewed the “Mag 8” (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla), identifying support/resistance levels, recent movements, and entry opportunities. One stock displayed a head and shoulders pattern, with a potential move above $45 and support near $55. The group emphasized watching for price gaps and key technical levels.

AMD and Pfizer Analysis

AMD was evaluated for its trading volume and accumulation/distribution trends. Pfizer was considered a potential buy at lower levels. Broader macroeconomic discussion included the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening policy and speculation on potential easing in the upcoming quarter.

Mid-Cap Stock Analysis: BBAI, AMD, RKLB

Stocks such as BBAI were analyzed for technical setups, with potential moves to $4.19 and $5.55. Financial concerns were noted, warranting caution. AMD was discussed again in the context of its revenue increase versus net income challenges. RKLB (Rocket Lab) was noted to have bounced off support near 17.16.

Aerospace and Tech Sector Highlights

Several aerospace and tech stocks were reviewed. Boeing showed a cup-and-handle pattern with an upside potential to $189. A defense analytics firm was highlighted for breaking out of a momentum range, with further upside possible if it breaks above $94. Arista Networks (ANET) was volatile but holding support, with a potential entry between $72 and $78. Other stocks, including IonQ, First Solar, ARM, and Cloudflare, were analyzed for technical setups, entry zones, and risk areas.

Market Assessment and Watchlist Discussion

Members discussed the current market environment and strategy. Given limited clear opportunities, playing defined ranges or using inverse ETFs was recommended. A watchlist of energy, healthcare, and international stocks was shared, along with a discussion on TLT (Treasury bond ETF) as a successful range-trading opportunity. Strategies varied, from cautious positioning to covered calls and dollar-cost averaging in long-term convictions. The potential impact of tariffs on the auto industry was also discussed.

Stock Market Developments and Predictions

A member reported purchasing 2,000 shares of a dividend-paying stock at $10.02, with a payout expected by March 31. A stop-loss around $9.90–$10.10 was suggested. Boeing’s recent 10% rally following a defense contract win was reviewed. The group also discussed an upcoming IPO in the AI space and compared it to similar past listings. Nike and The Trade Desk were evaluated for entry opportunities at $60 and $40 respectively, with caution advised due to ongoing legal proceedings affecting the latter.

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