Technical Analysis Weekly Recap - March 29, 2025

The group discussed market trends, stock performances, and strategies for navigating the current bearish market. Several stocks across sectors such as technology, home improvement, and retail were analyzed, along with the potential impact of economic data and auto tariffs. Additional discussions included the role of AI in various industries, YouTube growth strategies, and the importance of focusing on profitability in the current environment.

Next Steps

Group Admin: Add new members to the group chat once contact is received.
Members: Monitor consumer debt levels, mortgage delinquency rates, and PCE data for market impact.
Team: Track the impact of tariffs on the automotive, semiconductor, retail, and technology sectors.
Watchlist Update: Clean up and update the trading watchlist with requested stocks.
Research: Explore international ETFs for potential investment opportunities.
Individual Task: Monitor Carvana for a potential entry around $192, with a stop loss near the 200-day moving average.
Options Strategy: Set up covered calls for positions impacted by recent put assignments.
Stock Alerts: Use single-share alert strategies to monitor price ranges in select stocks.
Event Monitoring: Evaluate market conditions for potential waterfall events to scale into positions.
Position Management: Monitor and potentially enter reduced-size positions in Pfizer, Progressive, Qualcomm, and AT&T.
Sector Review: Evaluate XLK performance before initiating new technology positions.
Trade Validation: Collaborate on trade reviews throughout the week to validate decisions.
Interest Rate Strategy: Reassess used car market investments following any rate cuts expected in June.
Content Strategy: Generate video content ideas based on AI analysis of financial YouTube trends.
Course Development: Share AI-generated financial mindset course content internally for review.
Behind-the-Scenes: Create videos showcasing the process of webinar recaps and AI tool demonstrations for business.
YouTube Growth: Produce more content focused on investing platforms and AI trading tools.
Course Launch: Plan a paid course structure with a free preview session followed by a paid webinar.
Engagement: Leave supportive comments on group content to increase YouTube engagement.
Marketing: Continue outreach to grow the webinar participant base.
Referral Follow-Up: Track and follow up on referrals and lead generation effectiveness.
Analytics: Investigate methods to segment website traffic to exclude internal views.
Agriculture Watch: Monitor the impact of farmer subsidies on agriculture-related stocks and the food supply chain.

Summary

Market Analysis and Volatility

The group reviewed the recent market downturn, with all major indices—Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and S&P 500—continuing their downtrend for the seventh straight week. The VIX index spiked after a period of decline, signaling increased volatility. Concerns were raised about economic indicators and auto tariffs, and members were encouraged to suggest improvements to the meeting format.

Market Trends and Sector Overview

The discussion highlighted the formation of a double top and warned of continued selling pressure. Brief upward movements were noted but ultimately rejected at key moving averages. Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities showed strength, while energy remained relatively stable. Puts, inverse ETFs, and cash positions were suggested as strategic plays in the current market.

Tech Stock Performance

The group reviewed the MAGMA group (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon). Apple and Netflix showed relative strength, while Google and Meta experienced significant drops. Support and resistance levels were analyzed. Additional stocks discussed included Archer Aviation, C3.ai, and Arista Networks, with technical insights provided on each.

Sector-Specific Stock Analysis

Home improvement stocks such as Home Depot and Lowe’s showed seasonal strength. A head and shoulders pattern in Home Depot suggested caution. Tyson Foods was considered a potential consumer staple play. Deckers experienced a sharp decline and was analyzed for recovery potential.

Technical Patterns and Entry Strategies

The group discussed trading strategies, with emphasis on waiting for confirmation before entering positions. A detailed analysis was conducted on Wingstop, General Mills, and semiconductor stocks like ARM and AMAT. Retail and wholesale companies such as Costco and BJ’s were highlighted for relative strength.

Stock Discussion and Risk Strategies

Stocks like Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and Walgreens were examined. Walgreens’ trading range was attributed to a potential privatization deal. Carvana was evaluated as a high-volatility play, with entry near $192 and stop loss near the 50-day moving average. A step-based entry strategy was suggested.

Tariffs and Macro Insights

The group analyzed the impact of potential tariffs, particularly on the used car market. An interest rate cut in June was predicted, with potential positive effects on auto sales. Broader economic indicators, including layoffs and inflation, were discussed alongside their impact on market sentiment.

International Markets and Sector Trends

International ETFs were explored, alongside concerns about Chinese fintech companies. Fertilizer and agricultural stocks were reviewed in the context of rising food prices and policy changes. Companies like GE, Robinhood, and Groupon were briefly assessed for their market position.

Financial and Technical Insights

Qualcomm was identified as a potential opportunity with support near $149. Mortgage delinquency rates and consumer debt levels were rising slightly but not at crisis levels. The 10-year Treasury yield had increased but remained below January levels. AI-related stocks like Palantir and Nvidia showed weakness, while the communications sector (including AT&T and T-Mobile) performed well. Zscaler was noted as holding in an upward range.

Market Sentiment and Strategy

Several stocks were reviewed for their potential in light of market volatility. Discussions included political and economic concerns such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and wealth inequality. Despite challenges, members emphasized the importance of staying focused on finding opportunities.

AI Industry and IPO Insights

The group reviewed the recent IPO of CoreWeave, an AI infrastructure company that pivoted from crypto. The IPO underperformed, raising concerns about other AI IPOs. A video interview with the co-founder was reviewed, highlighting business model concerns such as debt and infrastructure depreciation. The group concluded that the AI industry remains promising, particularly for applications in agriculture and automation.

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