Technical Analysis - Weekly Recap - April 12, 2025

The meeting focused on analyzing market performance across various indices, sectors, and individual stocks. Discussions included recent volatility, trading strategies, and potential investment opportunities. Participants reviewed charts, sector performance, and specific companies, including tech giants, consumer staples, and emerging industries like AI and defense. Broader economic factors—such as interest rates, consumer sentiment, and safe-haven investments like gold and bonds—were also examined.

Next Steps

Monitor the performance of AI-related companies during the current market downturn.

Continue averaging into positions in key stocks, including major tech, financial, and healthcare companies.

Watch interest rate-sensitive stocks for entry opportunities when the 10-year Treasury yield begins to decline.

Identify reentry points for select high-growth stocks after profit-taking.

Watch for news of a possible settlement between XRP and the SEC as a potential trading catalyst.

Monitor developments in companies expanding into the defense sector.

Track consumer staples, utilities, and discretionary sectors for momentum-based trade setups.

Watch for a potential setup in Cloudflare near the $221 level based on technical patterns.

Consider adding to high-dividend REIT positions at lower prices.

Evaluate entry points in gold mining stocks under current market conditions.

Research biotech stocks with upcoming catalysts.

Monitor restaurant stocks for entry levels near recent support.

Keep an eye on homebuilders, particularly those innovating in fire-resistant construction.

Watch companies with China sourcing exposure for volatility.

Begin identifying tradable stocks within defined ranges early in the week.

Summary

Market Performance and Volatility Analysis

The session began with a technical overview of the major indices. The Dow posted a weekly gain, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 showed increased volatility with sharp declines and modest rebounds. The S&P 500 followed a similar pattern. The VIX spiked to 60, a level last seen in August 2024, with the market’s weekly low marked on April 7. Charts and sector trends were reviewed to assess trading opportunities.

Sector Analysis and Safe-Haven Assets

Market indices and sectors were examined for support and consolidation levels. Discussion focused on safe-haven investments such as gold and bonds, with gold notably rising. Sector heat maps were used to compare the current correction to past downturns. Pullbacks were especially prominent in energy, financials, and technology, while safe assets demonstrated strength.

Technology Sector Overview

The performance of major technology stocks was analyzed, including Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, and Broadcom. While some rebounded, others—like Meta and Netflix—lagged. Semiconductor companies were under pressure, though buyback programs were cited as potential sources of strength. The group agreed to continue reviewing individual names in the coming sessions.

Sector Strength and Stock Momentum

Consumer staples, utilities, and discretionary sectors showed consistent strength and were identified as areas of opportunity. Gold-related stocks outperformed. Stocks such as H&R Block, UnitedHealth, and Costco demonstrated strong momentum. Inverse ETFs also gained traction, signaling further market downside. Other stocks discussed included ROOT, GE, and HOOD.

Tech Stocks and Chart Patterns

Additional analysis included tech names such as Palantir, ARM, Micron, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Taiwan Semiconductor, and AMD. Most showed notable bounces off recent lows. The group discussed defense-related stocks and the importance of identifying consolidation zones for more reliable trade setups. Members shared their trading activity during the week.

Consumer and Financial Stocks

The group reviewed several consumer and financial stocks, including Nike, Target, Walmart, Delta, Disney, Visa, and American Express. Fast-moving price action was noted, and the importance of locking in profits quickly was emphasized. Potential macroeconomic impacts, such as immigration trends and media performance, were highlighted as factors influencing certain stocks.

Portfolio Adjustments and Trading Strategies

Recent trades and portfolio adjustments were shared. Several members increased exposure to tech and industrial names during recent pullbacks. Limit orders were successfully used to buy shares of high-performing pharmaceutical stocks. Additions were also made to retail and apparel holdings. Gains from the rally were partially erased in subsequent pullbacks, prompting review of position sizing and timing.

Stock Performance and Trading Opportunities

Market sentiment appeared weak, despite low oil prices, with travel stocks underperforming amid economic uncertainty. Stocks like GoDaddy, IBKR, Coca-Cola, and McDonald’s showed strength or signs of recovery. Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, bounced off recent lows. Trading setups were discussed for companies like Cloudflare, Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Kava.

Macro Environment and Safe-Haven Assets

The potential impact of legal developments, such as an XRP-SEC settlement, was discussed, with price targets compared to Ethereum. Dividend-paying stocks with high yields were considered. The 10-year Treasury yield was identified as a key indicator for mortgage rates and overall economic momentum. Gold continued to serve as a defensive play. Defense and drone companies were flagged for further research due to rising global tensions.

AI Trends and Future Focus

AI-related stocks were viewed as undervalued relative to long-term potential. The value of understanding AI tools such as ChatGPT was emphasized for future investing. Apple’s late-entry approach to AI was highlighted as a strength in execution. Homebuilder and restaurant stocks were flagged for future watchlists, especially if rates begin to fall.

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Technical Analysis - Weekly Recap - April 12, 2025